Monetary policy shocks and exchange rates in Asian countries

In this paper, we empirically investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates in Asian countries. To do so, we use VAR models which impose sign restrictions on impulse responses to identify monetary policy shocks. We find that contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to significant exchange rate appreciation in Malaysia, the People’s Republic of China, and the Republic of Korea. However, in India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, we find either a significant depreciation or no significant effect. These results suggest that an interest rate increase (or decrease) may not necessarily shield Asian countries from exchange rate depreciation (or appreciation) pressure following a U.S. interest rate increase (or decrease).     

城乡炫耀性消费差异的根源探索

运用中国家庭追踪调查数据,研究发现:农村家庭的炫耀性消费支出比例显著高于城镇家庭,且这一结果随时间变化比较稳健。进一步研究发现,在考虑了家庭参照群体的平均收入之后,城乡炫耀性消费差异不再显著,且参照群体的平均收入对家庭炫耀性消费的影响显著为负。这很可能来源于家庭为寻求社会地位而消费的动机,更高的社会地位意味着更多的财富和带来更高的收益。炫耀性消费充当了家庭社会地位的信号,向其参照群体传递了自身的收入水平状况,参照群体的平均收入越低,消费者寻求社会地位的消费动机越强。农村家庭参照群体的平均收入较低,所以其寻求社会地位的动机更强、炫耀性消费水平更高。因此,寻求社会地位的消费动机是城乡炫耀性消费差异的主要原因。     

Medical innovation and its diffusion: Implications for economic performance and welfare

We study the impact on economic performance and welfare of medical innovations and their endogenous diffusion. We construct a general equilibrium model with a medical sector and overlapping generations subject to endogenous mortality and calibrate it to reflect the development of the US economy and health care over the cardiac revolution during the 1980s and 1990s. By counterfactual analysis we find that (i) medical innovations have increased welfare without compromising GDP growth; (ii) there is a sizeable welfare loss due to the adoption lag involved with imperfect diffusion; and (iii) there is scope for Pareto improvement by way of subsidization of innovative health care.     

Forecasting Foreign Exchange Markets Using Google Trends: Prediction Performance of Competing Models

Abstract

Foreign exchange markets affect a variety of humans and businesses worldwide and there is a wide array of literature aimed at providing more accurate forecasts of their movement. In an attempt to quantify human expectations, Google query search terms related to foreign exchange markets are used to help explain and predict foreign exchange rates between the United States’ dollar and ten other currencies during the time period of January 2004 and August 2018. We find evidence that, while Google Trends can be helpful in prediction, it is necessary to implement some sort of shrinkage or sparsity scheme on the coefficients.     

生产分工视角的中国对美国货物出口竞争力验证

考虑生产分工对中美间经贸联系程度、贸易规模和结构的影响,基于生产分工下价值链视角,构建出口竞争力测度指标体系,验证中国对美国货物出口竞争力。结果显示:2016年及之前,中国仅在杂项制品大类上,对美国显示出较强出口竞争力,机械和运输设备、动物和植物油、油脂和蜡我国具有比较优势,化学成品及有关产品、按原料分类的制成品双方竞争性较强,其余大类上,中国对美国出口竞争力不具优势。引入其他国家作对比的分析结果表明:中国对对比国家均无显著出口竞争力,而且对美国出口具有单价优势的资本技术密集型产品,对这些国家出口多缺乏单价优势,而2017年以来对美国和对比国家的贸易变化,进一步勾画出中国对美国货物出口竞争力不足。在生产分工主导全球产业发展背景下,提升我国在全球生产分工中的参与地位,宜强化自主技术研发、提升外资质量和技术外溢、加快"走出去"学习先进技术。     

白洋港铁水联运车船直取模式研究

白洋港作为长江三峡的核心内陆港,是工业输出港、翻坝转运港和西部出海港,主要服务于白洋工业园区,担当西北地区物流陆水联运的作用。为实现白洋港铁水联运的无缝衔接,在阐述白洋港铁水联运模式及作业流程的基础上,针对白洋港既有铁水联运模式存在的问题,提出白洋港铁水联运车船直取模式,从车船直取模式设施布局及作业流程进行分析,达到压缩无效作业时间、提高白洋港铁水联运效率、释放技术站作业能力等效果,实现白洋港铁水联运效率的提升。     

中国自然保护地规划的回顾与对比研究

中国自然保护地历经60余年的发展，形成了多部门主导、保护类型多样的自然保护地体系。面对机构改革和以国家公园为主体的自然保护地体系建立的契机，传统规划的经验积累为新规划体系的构建提供了借鉴的可能。通过回溯机构改革前各类自然保护地规划，对比分析其规划结构体系，并从人地关系视角切入，分析各类规划针对保护对象、保护利用强度,以及社会发展调控上的差异，总结各类自然保护地规划的既有经验，为新时期规划体系的重构提供支撑。     

乡村森林旅游项目升级发展过程政商博弈探微——基于Z风景区3A创4A的案例分析

以Z风景区3A创4A愿景中当地政府与风景区经营商两个主体的决策行为为研究对象,以制度经济学为理论基础,采用博弈论模型进行分析。结果表明:在政府和经营商目标不一致的前提下,从政府来说,在政绩驱动下急于达到创4A目标,但政府又不能滥用纳税人的钱追加投资,其意愿是让商家继续投资,为创4A发力;从商家来说,虽然创4A有利于项目营利空间,但是客观上有规避未来市场不确定性和投资回报周期长双重风险的意识,还可能由于政府对项目创4A的急切性,导致商家存在"政府有可能追加投资,自己"搭便车"的"等靠要"机会主义思想,追加投资意愿不高;反过来也可能存在政府等待商家投资的搭便车行为。为此,提出以政商共同利益最大化为目标,通过改变激励措施,使政商博弈达到合作状态下较优的均衡结果。     

Representatives of future generations as promoters of sustainability in corporate decision processes

Current protests of the young generation emphasize that interests of future generations should be taken more into account by policy makers and in corporate decision processes. As organizations contribute to enduring environmental and social problems, they are required to promote sustainability in order to preserve options for the well-being of future generations. However, organizational decision makers often take a short-term perspective and neglect investments in intergenerational justice. Previous theoretical work has acknowledged the importance of representing future generations in today's decision-making processes to adopt a long-term perspective in order to promote intergenerational justice. In a laboratory experiment, we show that appointing representatives of future generations at the organizational level can foster investments in intergenerational justice. Although this outcome is more pronounced when aligned with the representatives' individual incentives, it even persists for a representative who is monetarily penalized for advocating the interests of future generations.     

The COVID-19 crisis: A public choice view

Many observers have been puzzled by the sight of otherwise freedom-loving citizens consenting to the stripping of their civil rights and the massive budgetary expansion of their governments in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Conversely, governments who ‘kept their cool’ such as those of Brazil and Sweden were heavily criticised by the Western media. Adopting James Buchanan's contractarian approach, this article seeks to model how the interplay between citizens and their government is affected by a health crisis. Citizens' increased willingness to pay for improved control of risks is found to play a major role.